If 2025 taught African retailers anything, it’s that stability does not equal predictability. While headline inflation eased across many markets, consumers continued to face pressure, seeking value and reassessing their loyalties amid years of economic uncertainty and shifting lifestyles.
As we look ahead to 2026, the retail landscape is poised to enter a new phase, where AI will continue to shape how consumers interact with brands. Trust will be harder to earn and easier to lose, and loyalty will be built through seamless experiences, relevance, and convenience rather than price. The nine trends below highlight the forces predicted to shape African retail in the coming year, revealing the opportunities, risks, and competitive advantages that African retail businesses should watch.
The insights on trends are based on an AI adoption study of 343 shoppers in Africa, stakeholder interviews, company publications, and a brand survey of 100 respondents.
1. Experience Will Outshine Price in Driving Loyalty
The drivers of loyalty are changing. Our 2025 Brand Loyalty Survey reveals that 70% of consumers who returned to brands they had previously abandoned did so for experiential reasons, including ease of access, superior quality, and convenience. Only 30% cited price, emotional attachment, or reputation as reasons for their decision. This trend signals a structural shift: consumers now value the quality of the experience over traditional incentives. Loyalty can no longer be bought with discounts alone. To capture and retain it, retail businesses must invest in people development, consistent service experiences at the point of sale, and innovation.
2. People, Not Just Brands, Will Drive Loyalty
The ownership of loyalty is shifting, from brands to people. In our recent brand loyalty survey, 78% of consumers reported a stronger allegiance to individual salespeople than to the brand itself (72%). Across Africa, this is a clear wake-up call. Retail businesses that fail to empower frontline teams, reward relationship-building, and embed human interactions into both offline and online offerings risk losing repeat business. In 2026, winning brands will be those that turn every customer interaction into a trust-building moment. Loyalty is earned through people, not just marketing campaigns.
3. Loyalty Won’t Be Exclusive; Consumers Will Play the Field
Absolute brand loyalty is fading. Our 2025 Brand Loyalty Survey shows that 66% of consumers are willing to switch brands for a better price, easier access, or a superior experience. Only 25% remain loyal regardless of circumstances, and just 9% respond mainly to financial incentives. For African retail businesses, this signals a clear shift: consumers are no longer committed to a single brand; they are constantly comparing and switching based on value, access, and experience. Loyalty has become conditional and must be earned repeatedly. Brands that rely on one-off promotions or rigid loyalty schemes will struggle. The winners in 2026 will be those who make every interaction count, offering flexible bundles and consistently delivering experiences that build trust.
4. Responsible Business Conduct Will Make or Mar Brands
Ethics and sustainability are now non-negotiable. Our 2025 Brand Loyalty Survey shows that 95% of shoppers consider sustainability and ethical practices when making purchasing decisions. This trend is reinforced by GeoPoll findings, which reveal that 82% of Nigerians are socially and environmentally aware, 86% of young consumers expect brands to engage in social causes, and 77% of Africans are willing to pay more for ESG-compliant products. For retail businesses across Africa, ethical and responsible practices are no longer optional; they are a competitive necessity. Brands that fail to embed responsibility into their operations risk losing both relevance and consumer trust.
5. Creative Pricing Will Decide Winners and Losers
Pricing is no longer just a set of numbers on a tag; it is now a tool for expressing empathy, understanding, and brand relevance. In 2025, 58% of Nigerian shoppers switched brands due to price considerations, with 27% opting for smaller pack sizes, 25% seeking cheaper alternatives, and 20% turning to discount stores (NielsenIQ, 2025). Across Africa, price still matters, but the rules are changing. Shoppers now seek value that feels smart, fair, and flexible. Retail businesses that cling to rigid pricing structures risk losing relevance. The winners in 2026 will be brands that innovate around affordability by offering refill packs, loyalty rewards, bundled options, and pricing models adapted to local realities.
6. Technology will only impress when it is humanized.
The adoption of AI and advanced technologies is accelerating across African retail, with countries like Kenya ranking among the top global users of tools such as ChatGPT. However, adoption alone is not enough; consumers increasingly judge brands by how human the technology feels. Our research shows that 6 in 10 shoppers feel frustrated or unsupported by how retailers currently use AI to engage with them. Using technology strategically to build trust, strengthen human connections, and resolve customer complaints will be critical in 2026. In other words, technologies such as AI should enhance the human touch, not replace it, because personalised engagement still matters more than ever.
7. Offline Channels Will Still Drive Customer Loyalty
Offline sales channels have emerged as a crucial driver of loyalty. In our Brand Loyalty Survey, 77% of shoppers reported being more loyal to offline channels compared to online ones (23%). This is particularly striking given the rapid growth of e-commerce across Africa. The seamless integration of offline and digital support builds customer loyalty across segments.
8. AI will grow the haggling appetite of Customers in Formal and Informal Retail
Seventy per cent of consumers on the continent use AI for their purchase decisions when shopping through open-air markets and neighbourhood stores, where 77% of them engage in bargaining. Haggling is the oil powering the engine of buyer-seller interactions on the continent. Businesses that embed bargaining capabilities into the AI tools used for customer engagement will have a bigger advantage in 2026.
9. Consumers Will Reclaim Control Amid Uncertainty
African shoppers will take greater control of their spending in 2026 as uncertainty from government reforms, shifting policies, and economic volatility reshapes consumer confidence. Nigeria’s tax reforms, scheduled for implementation in early 2026, along with rising telecom and digital transaction taxes in countries like Mali, Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania, and Cameroon, will make consumers more cautious and deliberate, favouring sellers who are familiar, transparent, and flexible with pricing. Brands that offer choice, clarity, and reliable experiences will gain loyalty and a competitive edge, while those relying on inflexible processes or short-term promotions risk losing relevance.
Action Points for African Retail Businesses
African consumers in 2026 will be selective, strategic, and experience-driven. Loyalty will no longer be assumed; it must be deliberately earned. Retail businesses must move beyond price-led strategies and focus on trust, personalisation, convenience, ethical conduct, and human-centred technology. To remain competitive, African retail stakeholders should:
- Strengthen frontline teams and relationships to build trust and loyalty.
- Create seamless, flexible experiences across offline and digital channels.
- Adopt empathetic and adaptable pricing that reflects local realities.
- Embed ethical, sustainable, and responsible practices into operations.
- Use AI responsibly with transparency, cultural relevance, and data protection.
- Empower consumers with choice and flexibility to navigate uncertainty.
Retailer businesses that anticipate these shifts and act decisively will not only survive but also thrive in an increasingly savvy, demanding, and unpredictable African market.
Authors:
Uchenna Uzo, Faculty and Academic Director, Africa Retail Academy, Lagos Business School
Paschal Ike, Research and Teaching Assistant, Lagos Business School
References
NielsenIQ (2025). Africa Consumer Outlook and FMCG Forecasts. Presented at the NielsenIQ 3rd Annual Breakfast Conference, Lagos, October 2025.
Uzo, U., and Ike, P. (2025). Survey on brand loyalty in Nigeria [Unpublished survey]. Lagos Business School.
Uzo, U., Nwokporo, E., & Maiyaki, S. (2025). AI’s blind spot: What Africa’s shoppers know that algorithms don’t. In Scaling Smart (p. 21). Lagos Business School, Pan-Atlantic University, Nigeria.
